Life and Times on the Waiver Wire

Movie Review – Superman Returns (2006)

al — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 05:36:05 +0000

Although I have been a lifelong comic book fan, I have not been an avid DC follower and I definitely have not been a Superman fan. But if anything could start me on that path, it could be this movie. Superman Returns combines the classic good versus evil fight and adds a very real and tangible human element to it. There is a minimum of exposition and a somewhat refreshing lack of extraneous dialogue. Even though you know how a movie is going to end in the Superman franchise, it is surprising how your heart is tugged by the internal conflicts of the movie, especially the love triangle between Superman, Lois Lane, and Lois’ fiance Richard. Great portrayal of Lois Lane by Kate Bosworth and a decent performance by Brandon Routh of Superman. The fairly realistic reaction of American society to a superhero in tights and a more modern take on his powers helps to overcome some of the inherent logical flaws in the character of Superman. Overall, a classic yet refreshing take on a classic icon.

Rating: 4 out of 5 stars

Movie Review – Jumper (2008)

al — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 05:28:22 +0000

Surprisingly decent. I admit I had low expectations when I saw the trailer, but I usually enjoy even cheesy action / science fiction fare and I wasn’t disappointed. I appreciated how the writers gave the film a somewhat epic feel by including a backstory that spanned the history of man. Hayden Christensen (as David Rice) and Samuel L. Jackson (as Roland) were their usual selves (robotic and bad ass, respectively), but Rachel Bilson (as Millie) was a breath of fresh (and good-looking) air. Moreover, the visual concept of the teleportation was well-thought out and did not dominate the movie. A great popcorn flick: decent action and visual effects, with a good but not great script.

Rating: 3 out of 5 stars

Movie Review – Serenity (2005)

al — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 23:08:57 +0000

Synopsis
Following the events of the short-lived TV series, Firefly, the crew of Serenity continue to fly along the edges of space looking for any odd jobs that will pay. While they do their best to avoid the ever-present Alliance government, a special operative (Chiwetel Ejiofor) is tasked with recovering the mysteriously gifted River Tam (Summer Glau). But Malcolm Reynolds (Nathan Fillion) is very protective of his crew and won’t give up without a fight. In the end, however, River’s secret is farther-reaching than anyone can imagine.

Applause (The Good)
* Continues the Firefly story – I loved the TV series, short-lived as it was.
* Excellent, strong characters – Each character has a great history, although the confined length of a movie really cut the character development short for an ensemble cast of 9.
* The Operative – Excellent job by Chiwetel Ejiofor as the Alliance Operative in pursuit of Serenity. Portraying the ultimate bad guy, he used a polite demeanor to belie the monster underneath. The scariest parts are the quietest ones, when he espouses his twisted sense of morality and justice.
* Better special effects – I believe they were able to spend some more money on special effects and the final space fight showed it. The corkscrew scene was great, too.

Yawns (The Bad)
* Not enough Shepard Book – Unfortunately, telling the story of 9 main characters in a movie is just impossible and I missed the strong presence of Book on the ship.
* River’s abilities grew too quickly – Again I am nitpicking, but the movie format necessitated River’s abilities growing much faster than Joss Whedon probably originally intended.

When The Lights Come On (Overall)
As a big fan of the original Firefly series, I enjoyed the followup film, Serenity, a great deal. The original cast was back and did a wonderful job as always. The cast and storyline ably demonstrate that real life is not so black and white as many films make it out to be, while doing it with some tongue-in-cheek humor. The look and feel of the series remained, but with a bigger budget for improved special effects. The only bad part is that it reminded me that the series was over and we would never see this particular ensemble together again.

Rating: 4 out of 5 stars

Movie Review – Spider-Man 3 (2007)

al — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 01:59:43 +0000

Synopsis
In this third installment, Peter Parker (Tobey Maguire) sees his alter-ego, the crime-fighting superhero Spider-Man, begin to gain acceptance in the general community. As he tries to further his relationship with Mary Jane Watson (Kirsten Dunst), however, a litany of super-powered villains get in his way. Parker’s old friend, Harry Osborn (James Franco), continues to battle his inner demons. These demons cry for Osborn to seek revenge against Spider-Man in the guise of the Green Goblin. Meanwhile, an escaped convict, Flint Marko (Thomas Haden Church), gains powers which earn him the nickname “The Sandman”. And on top of it all, an alien symbiote crashes onto Earth that mysteriously amplifies Spider-Man’s powers. But is this symbiote actually a friend or foe?

Applause (The Good)
* Spider-Man – I have been a lifelong Spider-Man fan so I had to see this movie no matter what. The CGI effects for Spidey swinging through the city continue to be good.
* Sandman - Combining a nice performance by Church along with some excellent nuances in the special effects, he is one of my favorite villains and I was pleasantly surprised that they did not ruin his character (my normal fear in any movie adaptation of a comic book).
* Eddie Brock – I did not know that Topher Grace would be playing Brock, but his adaptation of the character showed a believable motivation that would transform him into the super-villain Venom.

Yawns (The Bad)
* The love story – I have had a problem with the love story since the first Spider-Man and it continues to muddy, slow down, and downgrade the movie. Part of it is that I am not a fan of Dunst, part of it is lack of chemistry between Maguire and Dunst (although the chemistry between Dunst and Franco was surprisingly good), and part of it is that big budget action movies should not spend such an inordinate amount of time on the love story.
* Too much CGI – Yes, some of the special effects are great and yes, it is a superhero movie. But CGI still does not replicate the intensity of real-life action sequences. I would have preferred fewer scenes where the actors were fighting imaginary opponents on a green screen and more scenes where they actually fight each other.
* Too many storylines – They tried to fit too many plotlines and characters into one story.
* Osborn’s butler – A poor attempt to re-create Batman’s butler, Alfred, flopped and created plot holes (why didn’t he tell Harry sooner?).

When The Lights Come On (Overall)
As a longtime comic book reader, I am particularly critical of comic books turned into movies. While it is a decent quality production, I have especially high expectations since Spider-Man is of one of my favorite characters. I have had problems with the castings of Maguire and Dunst since the first movie. Combine that with a love story that drones on (think Anakin/Amidala in Star Wars) and this movie goes longer than it needs to. Although the CGI is decent, more interspersing with real-life fight sequences would make the action more believable. All of the actors do their best to give decent performances, however, highlighted by Church and Grace demonstrating believable motivations for the bad guys. Not a great movie, but at least it’s not the farce that became Batman & Robin.

Rating: 3 out of 5 stars

Predicting Steve Novak

al — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 23:01:36 +0000

The half-full guys may salivate over his gaudy highs while the half-empty guys may be dismayed at his doughnut-shaped lows. I’m talking Steve Novak, the 3-point specialist for the abysmal Los Angeles Clippers who offers almost no rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, or even turnovers for that matter. But he averages 1.8 3′s in 16 mins over 60 of the Clippers’ games this year. That pace would average four 3-pointers a game over 36 mins. He shot nothing but threes against New Jersey and made 7 out of 11 for a tidy 21 points, 3 rebounds, and 1 steal on March 15. Three games later, Novak dumped a big zero on owners, shooting 0-for-2 with 0 points, 1 rebound, and 1 assist against Detroit on March 20. So will the real Steve Novak please stand up?

My answer: they are both Steve Novak, much like Eminem is the real Slim Shady. I believe one of the keys to explaining Novak’s performance is the all-important matchup. While for superstars like Dwyane Wade and Lebron James matchups simply means “who’s the next victim?”, Novak’s numbers are obviously very reliant on his 3-point shot. While taking a look at his recent performances, I noticed a trend: Novak torches teams which are weak at defending 3′s. Yes, it is stating the obvious, but looking at the obvious may open your eyes and improve your fantasy performance.

In the month of March, Novak’s best performances have come against teams which are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to 3 point defensive indicators: allowing the most 3 pointers attempted, allowing the most 3 pointers made, or allowing the best 3 point field goal percentage. The following lists game dates, Novak’s 3 point performance, the opposing team, and their defensive ranks for 3 point indicators as of March 23, 2009 (M = made, A = attempts, % = percentage).

Mar 14 – 5 of 7. Denver, M – 24th, A – 26th, % – 18th.
Mar 15 – 7 of 11. New Jersey, M – 27th, A – 20th, % – 27th.
Mar 17 – 3 of 6. Golden State, M – 21st, A – 16th, % – 25th.
Mar 18 – 6 of 10. Washington, M – 30th, A – 29th, % – 26th.
Mar 22 – 3 of 4. Toronto, M – 29th, A – 30th, % – 17th.

Here is another list of his performances, this time against strong 3 point defenses:

Mar 20 – 0 for 1. Detroit, M – 1st, A – 1st, % – 10th.
Mar 10 – 1 for 2. Cleveland, M – 6th, A – 14th, % – 1st.
Mar 2 – 2 of 4. San Antonio, M – 2nd, A – 2nd, % – 17th. (The only reason he had so many attempts was due to injuries to the Clippers which gave him 38 mins of playing time. The fact that his overall stat line was 11 points, 0 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 steals, and 0 blocks in 38 mins shows how limited he was by the defense.)
Feb 25 – 1 of 5. Boston, M – 7th, A – 13th, % – 4th.

Granted, everything is not solely dependent on matchups. Under this theory, he should have exploded against Golden State on Feb 23 but he shot 0 for 3. He should have imploded against Cleveland on Jan 30 but made 5 of 10 3′s on his way to 7 of 15 shooting. The fact of the matter is that everything needs to be taken into account: playing time, opportunity, injuries, career performance, recent performance, etc. But the matchup data shows a very strong correlation and thus can be a significant contributing factor to predicting his future numbers. In fact, I came upon this strong corollary as recently as his March 14 Denver game. I noticed that the Clipper schedule was just screaming for “Steve Novak breakout”. Unfortunately I was only able to snag him in my league for the Washington and Toronto games on March 18 and March 22 due to other waiver wire moves which I made. But his performances held up to most of my expectations.

As for the crystal ball, my predictions are that he will have a decent game against New York on March 25. After that, his next best opportunity for big numbers is not until the back-to-back games of Denver on April 4 and the Lakers on April 5. Here’s the supporting data:

New York, M – 17th, A – 25th, % – 5th. Despite the 5th best defending 3 point percentage, the real additional points you want to consider are: the New York Knicks run-and-gun style and Novak’s Feb 11 performance (6 of 8 from 3) against the Knicks. I like his chances for this game.
Denver, as noted above.
LA Lakers, M – 23rd, A – 27th, % – 6th. Yeah, a shocker to me, too. We all know the Lakers are a good defensive team, so I place more emphasis on the % defensive ranking of 6th. I suspect that the makes and attempts are high due to the superior interior defense of the Lakers. Rather than risk the stingy interior defense, teams are giving up and just chucking it from outside. This game carries additional risk, obviously, but the last time Novak played the Lakers on Jan 21 he did go 4 of 5 from 3.

So what does this mean for you? Plan accordingly. He has a good shot at the above 3 games while the rest of his games this season will be a crapshoot. Weekly leaguers probably don’t want to risk it. Daily leaguers may want to swap him in at opportune times. Play at your own risk…